One Country, Fifty-One Rulebooks. Stop Waiting for a Winner.

Capitol and Capital is a Think Big series on the businesses engaging state and federal capitals to shape policy.

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The question I hear most from executives in regulated industries is some version of the same thing: when is Washington finally going to settle the rules? It's an understandable question, because the federal debate is loud right now. A bipartisan House discussion draft released in June, the Great American AI Act, would pause state laws regulating AI development for three years [Source]. While Congress has debated a federal framework that still hasn't passed, the states enacted 145 AI laws last year alone [Source]. The states aren't waiting to find out how the federal debate ends. Neither are the courts.

Look at prediction markets, where the same war is being fought with faster rulings and higher stakes. Federally regulated platforms are arguing that the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction preempts state gambling enforcement. In April, the Third Circuit became the first federal appeals court to agree, upholding an injunction against New Jersey's enforcement [Source]. Courts in Nevada, Maryland, and Ohio went the other way. Arizona filed criminal charges, and a federal judge blocked them. New Jersey is taking the question to the Supreme Court, with its petition due August 4. Same country, same product, opposite answers, depending on which courthouse you're standing in.

But here's the reality: there is no referee coming. Federal AI preemption hasn't passed. The Supreme Court hasn't ruled on event contracts. The pattern underneath both fights is older than either issue. When states act aggressively, industries run to Washington for preemption. When Washington stalls, the fight moves right back to the states.

That cycle doesn't resolve. It rotates.

Which means the question most companies are asking, which rulebook wins?, is the wrong question. The right ones: Who is defining your industry in Sacramento, Austin, and Trenton while you wait on Washington? Which statehouse fight is about to become the national template? Who is telling your story to the regulators who will act first?

The companies shaping these outcomes aren't choosing between the Capitol and the state capitals. They're building presence, narrative, and coalitions in both at once. From monitoring the fight to engaging in it. From a government affairs footprint in D.C. to a fifty-one-front operating picture.

At Think Big, we're not watching these fights from the sidelines. We're in them. We'd love to hear which fights you're watching, where you're playing offense, and where you're stuck waiting.

—Lewis Muller CEO, Think Big